Just wondering how many people died in the great winter? Or, to take a demographic view, what percentage of the population?
If you ran it from the 1621 event, then for a Sartarite, the chance of having a parent die is (assuming my math is working) is approximately 30%.
But that's a dumb way to work it out. Those tables are for PCs, not the whole population. Read them as applying to the whole population and 60% of the population of Lunar Tarsh witnessed the Dragonrise. Obviously not.
So, what else do we have in the way of before and after figures?
From the GTG, map on p.173, 1621 populations
Alda-chur 4k
Clearwine, 2k
Jonstown 2k
Boldhome 11k
From various sources, 1625
Alda-chur 4k (https://wellofdaliath.chaosium.com/city-populations/)
Boldhome 11k (same ref)
Jonstown 2500 (starter back, book 2, p.27)
Clearwin 1850 (GM pack, adventure book, p.12)
We also have this note from the last reference "“The total population has recovered since the Great Winter three years ago, although the population is disproportionately made up
of young children and adults, with fewer than normal elders.”
The adults ref doesn't mean much - they lived through the Great Winter. And recovered does seem to mean that any losses have been replaced, judging by the above figures.
So, what proportion of the population died? If you assume (for argument's sake) an average lifespan of 60 years, then 1/60th of the population is born each year - or 1.66%, for a stable population. For new births to make up even a 5% loss in the Great Winter in three years, you're assuming a 1.66% addition per year for three years. So that would take a sustained doubling of the normal birth rate since the Great Winter. Possible, but a bit of a stretch. I can't see it being any higher. Which means the actual death rate may have been lower. Of course, I'm not taking infant mortality rates into account, but even so. And I assume they are lower in Glorantha. Less infant mortality, more deaths from combat.
As an aside, the British suffered 6% of the adult male population died in WW1 (https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/olympic-britain/crime-and-defence/the-fallen/). Which is somewhat less than 5% of the total population.
Thoughts?